China’s Carbon Emissions Rebound As Their Zero-Covid Policy Ends
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In 2022, emissions fell by 0.9% in China, the world's largest coal consumer, due to its zero-covid policy and associated lockdowns.
According to data from the Global Carbon Project, China's emissions fell for the first time since 2016. In addition, declines in China's oil, gas and cement consumption contributed toemissions reductions, while coal consumption remained flat.
However, China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions rose 4% in the first quarter of 2023, reaching a record high for the first three months of the year.
Based on official and commercial data, a new analysis by Carbon Brief found the rise was driven by economic recovery after China's long-running zero-covid policy, stimulus measures, and hydropower weakness due to continued drought.
Looking ahead to the rest of the year, China's emissions are likely to hit a record high in 2023 and surpass the previous peak in 2021 as the government focuses on economic growth.
However, the medium-term picture is less clear. Following last year's significant increase, more new coal-firedpower capacity was approved in the first quarter of 2023.
During the same period, wind and solar capacity additions reached record highs, and nuclear power also increased.
An increase in greenhouse gas emissions in China has ended hopes that CO2 has already peaked, but renewable installations leave analysts optimistic that one is imminent
Power generation accounted for the largest share of theincrease in emissions. Coal-based power generation increased by 2% fromthe previous year.
Coal is China's main energy source and is widely used for heating, power generation and steel production.
The country has ramped up coalproduction since last summer when its worst heat wave and drought in decades hit hydroelectric power, the country's second-largest energy source.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, coal production in 2022 is up 11% from2021.
Aiming to boost coal imports, China lifted restrictions on Australian coal earlier this year, ending more than two years of 'unofficial' bans.
As a result, China's total coal imports in the first quarter rose 96%year-on-year.[iv]
Will China’s Economic Development Rely Upon Carbon Emissions
Current emission trends in the wake of the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic contrast with those seen after the global financial crash in 2008.
Energy intensity of GDP is 3.5% lower than in 2019. In 2011, 3 years after the2008 financial crash, the same metric had decreased only by 2%.
Energy use in 2022 was less carbon-intensive than pre-pandemic, in contrast to the surge seen in the early 2010s.
The big green spending component of pandemic stimulus packages seems to have been successful in securing a lasting impact on reducing emissions growth.
From April 2020 to April 2022, governments around the world enacted $1.215billion in clean energy investment support, according to the IEA's government energy spending tracker.
This is more than double which was made available following the 2008 economic crisis.
These global trends are reflected within China; high investment in clean energy means that projected economic growth is unaffected by carbon reductions which give analysts hope for an imminent peak in emissions.
The country will also significantly exceed its internationally pledged 2030 target, with emissions expected to peak by 2025, according to a Carbon Brief assessment.
This means China could achieve even more ambitious targets over the next decade without changing its emissions path.
China's international climate commitment (National DeterminedContribution (NDC)) calls for CO2 emissions to peak "by 2030" an dreduce the country's carbon intensity, i.e. emissions per unit of GDP.
Both pledges rely on fossil fuel consumption, which is expected to peak and thendecline, rather than China's production capacity, which expanded last year.
Alternatively, China could invest in accelerating other elements of the cleanenergy transition, such as green hydrogen, but China's new strategy calls for less than 1% of domestic hydrogen production by 2025.
On the other hand, the introduction of renewable energy is rapidly increasing in China.
Goals for 2030include non-fossil fuels reaching "around 25%" of primary energy consumption and increasing installed capacity of wind and solar to 1,200gigawatts.
Renewable energy capacity exceeded 1,000 GW in 2021,quadrupling from 250 GW in 2010, while wind and solar now exceed 300 GW each,with CEC forecasts to reach a maximum of 150 GW by 2022.
